使い方
- インストールコマンドをコピーし、自分の環境へ導入する前にソースを確認します。
- 必要なツール、認証情報、対応環境を原文で確認します。
- 入力と成果物を指定し、出力を資料と照合します。
npx skills add https://github.com/affaan-m/ecc --skill prediction-market-oracle-research開始前の確認
- 導入にはモデル契約、API枠、ファイルへのアクセス許可は含まれません。
- スター数や導入数は活動の指標であり、独立した品質・安全性試験ではありません。
リポジトリの原文
見出し、例、コード、表、リンク、参照画像を含む原文を表示しています。
Prediction Market Oracle Research
Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
Guardrails
- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the
implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run
llm-trading-agent-security
before granting any write authority.
Research Workflow
- Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
- Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
- Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
- Evaluate signal quality:
- liquidity
- spread
- market age
- trader/incentive concentration if known
- resolution authority
- geography or account restrictions
- Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research,
customer data, or internal KPIs.
- Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated
decision.
Integration Patterns
- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a
threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
Output Contract
Use:
- decision context
- market sources
- signal quality
- comparison sources
- integration recommendation
- caveats
End with:
text
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.