china-earnings-analysis

china-earnings-analysis

Purpose

Create professional A股季度/年度业绩点评报告, analyzing results for companies already under coverage. Follow Chinese sell-side research standards (中金、中信、华泰 format).

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_financials(ticker, "income", "quarterly")   → 利润表 (季度)
get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual")      → 利润表 (年度)
get_financials(ticker, "balance", "quarterly")  → 资产负债表
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow", "quarterly") → 现金流量表
get_quote(ticker)                               → 实时行情, PE/PB
get_historical_data(ticker)                     → 股价表现
# News (china-news MCP — separate server)
get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}")          → 相关新闻

Secondary Sources

• 巨潮资讯 (cninfo.com.cn) — 正式财报 PDF (mandatory)
• 上证e互动 / 深交所互动易 — 投资者关系 Q&A
• 公司官网 — 业绩说明会 (earnings call) 材料
• 慧博投研 / 同花顺 iFinD — 一致预期数据
• Wind / Choice — institutional consensus (if available)

Key Financial Terms (Chinese → English)

Workflow

Step 1: Pull the Earnings Print

Data to collect:

• Current quarter / full year income statement (from 巨潮 PDF or iFind/AkShare)
• Balance sheet and cash flow statement
• Management commentary / 业绩说明会 transcript
• Company press release (投资者关系活动记录表)

Verify against:

• Previous quarter guidance (管理层指引)
• Consensus estimates (一致预期) if available

Step 2: Build the Variance Table

Required columns:

Surprise calculation:

• Beat/Miss % = (Actual - Consensus) / |Consensus| × 100%
• Flag:
• 大幅超预期: >+10%
• 符合预期: -10% to +10%
• 低于预期: <-10%

Consensus sources (in priority order):

1. Wind / Choice 一致预期
2. 慧博投研 盈利预测
3. 同花顺 iFinD 盈利预测
4. 分析师预测调研 (from 巨潮 业绩预告)
5. If unavailable, note [UNSOURCED]

Step 3: Analyze Key Drivers

Revenue:

• Volume vs price decomposition
• Segment revenue breakdown (if disclosed)
• New product / customer contribution
• Industry volume trends

Margins:

• 毛利率变化: input cost (原材料), pricing power, product mix
• 费用率变化: 费用率 = 费用 / 营业收入
• 营业利润率 trends

Balance Sheet:

• 应收账款增速 vs 收入增速
• 存货积压 risk
• 有息负债 changes
• 商誉 level (flag impairment risk)

Cash Flow:

• 经营现金流 vs 净利润 (quality of earnings)
• 资本支出 intensity
• Free cash flow = 经营CF - 资本支出

Step 4: Update Estimates

Forward estimates adjustment:

Based on current quarter results and management guidance:

• Update FY20XXE revenue, margins, EPS
• Adjust Q2-Q4 quarterly estimates
• Update annual consensus if material change
• Flag if guidance was provided

Estimate change table:

Step 5: Valuation Update

Current valuation metrics:

• Current stock price + daily change
• PE (动 / 静), PB, PS
• EV/EBITDA (if applicable)
• 52-week high/low, YTD performance
• Relative to sector median

Post-earnings re-rating assessment:

• Did multiple expand/contract?
• Is valuation now cheap/expensive vs history and peers?
• 目标价 adjustment rationale

Step 6: Draft the Report

Standard A-share earnings update structure:

标题：[公司名称]（[代码]）[Q20XX / FY20XX] 业绩点评：[超预期/符合预期/低于预期]

一、业绩概览
  - 核心数据一览表
  - 同比/环比增速
  - 超出/低于一致预期幅度

二、收入分析
  - 收入增速分解
  - 分业务/分地区收入
  - 量价分析

三、利润分析
  - 毛利率变化及原因
  - 费用率分析
  - 净利润增速分解

四、资产负债表
  - 应收账款
  - 存货
  - 有息负债
  - 其他关注点

五、现金流量
  - 经营现金流
  - 资本支出
  - 自由现金流

六、估值与投资建议
  - 当前估值水平
  - 目标价调整
  - 评级维持/调整

七、风险提示
  - 行业政策风险
  - 原材料价格波动
  - 竞争加剧
  - 商誉减值风险

Step 7: Quality Check

Before delivering:

• [ ] All numbers sourced from 巨潮 PDF or iFind/AkShare
• [ ] Variance table complete with actual/consensus/prior
• [ ] Beat/miss flagged with % surprise
• [ ] Key drivers identified and explained
• [ ] Forward estimates updated
• [ ] Valuation metrics current
• [ ] Risk factors listed (China-specific)
• [ ] Citations complete; unsourced items marked [UNSOURCED]

China-Specific Elements

Earnings Call (业绩说明会)

• Schedule: typically same day or next trading day after earnings release
• Location: 上证e互动 / 深交所互动易
• Format: online video/audio + text Q&A
• Key questions often from retail investors

Regulatory Requirements

• 业绩预告 (earnings preview): required if variance >50%
• 业绩快报 (earnings flash): optional, typically 10 days before full report
• Full annual report: 4 months after year-end
• Semi-annual report: 2 months after H1
• Quarterly report: 1 month after quarter-end

Accounting Nuances

• 扣非净利润 (non-GAAP net income) widely used by analysts
• 其他收益 (other income) can mask core operating performance
• 政府补助 (government subsidies) significant for some sectors
• 资产减值损失 (asset impairment) — flag if unexpectedly large
• 股份支付 (share-based compensation) — expensed immediately under CAS

Market Context

• 涨跌停 limits affect post-earnings price action (±10% main board, ±20% 创业板/科创板)
• Northbound flow (北向资金) may react strongly to earnings
• Retail investor participation high → earnings can cause outsized moves

Source Citations

Format for data citations:

Source: 巨潮资讯, [Company] 2024 年年度报告, p.[X], [URL if applicable]
Source: iFind ifind_get_stock_financials / AkShare get_financials(ticker="{{TICKER}}", statement_type="income", period="quarterly")
Source: 慧博投研, [Company] 盈利预测, accessed [Date]
Source: 同花顺 iFinD, 一致预期数据, accessed [Date]

For figures not from primary sources:

[UNSOURCED] — estimate based on [rationale]

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference. - ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable - ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare - akshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only